IDC assesses the impact of the war on Middle East and Africa’s IT spending across different scenarios, for weeks, months and across most of the year.
The escalation of conflict in the Middle East introduces a new macroeconomic and geopolitical variable into an already fragile global technology environment. Based on IDC’s macroeconomic modelling framework, on 02 March IDC sees six primary impact vectors on IT spending: energy price volatility, cloud and data centre resiliency, sovereign infrastructure acceleration, cybersecurity, supply chain, and shifts in consumer and enterprise investment sentiment.
The war in the Middle East is not simply a regional geopolitical event, it is a structural test of the digital economy’s energy dependence, infrastructure resilience, and supply chain architecture.
While the Middle East faces immediate exposure, the global IT industry will feel second-order effects through energy costs, semiconductor supply, and capital allocation decisions.
In the near term, caution and scenario planning will dominate enterprise decision-making. In the medium term, this conflict may accelerate structural investments in sovereign infrastructure, cybersecurity, and multi-region cloud resiliency.
Compared to previous military conflicts such as the Iraq war in the early 2000s, the IT industry is now extremely different, having undergone a period of radical transformation over the past two decades. A much larger share of enterprise IT spending is now opex and subscription-based, while a larger share of infrastructure investment is now concentrated in the service provider segment.
IDC is focusing its scenario analysis and forecasts on a war limited to the Middle East, which lasts for less than 3 months. A relatively short conflict would have limited impact on demand for cloud services and enterprise software, but returning inflationary pressures could put a drag on device upgrades and some discretionary spending.
In this downside scenario, global IT spending would grow by around 9% in 2026, versus our baseline forecast of 10% growth. A longer conflict would have a more pronounced impact on IT spending but is currently more difficult to predict.
IT spending in the Middle East and Africa region was $155 billion in 2025, representing 4% of the global market, and is currently forecast to increase by 5% in 2026. This is lower than global growth, due to memory price pressures on device markets which make up a larger share of IT spending in the region.
In a downside scenario where the conflict is resolved within 3 months, IT spending growth in MEA would fall into the range of 3-4% this year, with negative implications for business and investor confidence in the short term. The impact at country level would be extremely mixed, reflecting oil supply dynamics and other factors. A longer conflict would have a greater impact.
Scenario impacts
While there will be some short-term disruption from a much shorter conflict which is resolved within weeks, IDC does not currently plan to revise its baseline February 27 Black Book forecast. A shorter conflict will result in a faster rebound and resumption of ongoing investments and projects over the course of the year.
IDC has created two new scenarios to assess the likely impact of a regional conflict which lasts for up to 3 months, scenario 1; or most of 2026, scenario 2.
Of the two alternative scenarios IDC have created, the more likely outcome is one in which the conflict is resolved within 3 months or less.
This lingering conflict, months, not weeks would have a more measurable impact on IT spending, resulting in around a 1.0 percentage point reduction in annual growth. Most of this impact would be concentrated in devices and discretionary project spending. In the absence of other external factors, IDC does not expect service providers to significantly pull back their AI investment plans.
The primary risk to enterprise IT spending is related to macroeconomic factors, in particular a period of much higher oil prices which would affect business and consumer spending in addition to central bank decisions around interest rate policy.
In the second scenario, where a conflict lasts for more than 3 months, this would result in more postponements of IT projects and device upgrades. The impact on IT spending in this scenario would be greater than 1.0 percentage point.
In the Middle East, Africa region, the impact is more complicated, and likely to be more fluid in the context of ongoing political developments which are difficult to predict. Strategic, regional investment in AI is likely to continue, however, with most of the downside impact focused on business and consumer spending delays.
IDC’s current baseline forecast of 5% growth in MEA IT spending this year would likely fall into a range of 3-4% in the first scenario, where the conflict lasts for several months.
Even in a worst-case scenario where the conflict lasts for longer than 3 months, underlying demand for cloud and AI deployment in the region is likely to remain strong and would recover quickly.
#1 Conflict contained in weeks
- Temporary oil spike.
- Modest pause in regional projects.
- Minimal revision to global IT growth outlook.
#2 Prolonged regional instability for less than 3 months
- Oil sustained at $85–$95.
- Inflationary pressure dampens global IT growth by 0.5–1.0 percentage points.
- Accelerated sovereign cloud buildout.
- Slower consumer device recovery.
#3 Escalation and energy shock for 6-9 months
- Oil above $100.
- Delayed interest rate normalisation.
- Significant consumer contraction.
- Reprioritisation toward resiliency, cybersecurity, and critical infrastructure.
- Pronounced impact on IT spending, especially in the MEA region.
Summary
- Conflict escalation adds a new macro, geopolitical variable to an already fragile global technology environment.
- Base case assumption, war is contained to the Middle East and less than three months.
- Global IT spending: baseline ~10% growth in 2026; downside, conflict up to 3 months ~9% growth, with most weakness in devices and discretionary projects.
- MEA IT spending: $155B in 2025, 4% of global; baseline ~5% growth in 2026; downside scenario ~3–4% growth with highly mixed country outcomes.
- Energy is the primary transmission mechanism: oil, gas volatility raises operating, input costs, data centres, fabs, logistics and can reinforce inflation, tighten capital and delay projects.
- Cloud resiliency becomes non-negotiable: multi-availability zone architectures, in-country redundancy, broader risk modelling; near-term pacing may slow while architectures are reassessed.
- Cybersecurity is a relative beneficiary: elevated state, proxy cyber risk drives faster spending on MDR, SOC, zero trust, EDR, IAM, CSPM, OT security, and recovery environments.
Excerpted and edited from IDC Point of View: First Look at the War in the Middle East and Its Impact on IT Spending in the Region and Globally. This analysis was done on 02 March by Stephen Minton, Group Vice President, Data & Analytics; Laurie Buczek, GVP Research; Rick Villars, Group VP, Worldwide Research; Lapo Fioretti, Senior Research Analyst; Andrea Siviero, Senior Research Director, Macro Tech, Digital Business, and Future of Work; Thomas Meyer, General Manager and Group Vice President; Ashish Nadkarni, GVP, GM, Infrastructure Research; Simon Ellis, Program GVP; Ranjit Rajan, Research Vice President, Worldwide C-Suite Tech Agenda; Harish Dunakhe, Senior Research Director, Software and Cloud; Jebin George, Senior Research Manager, Software, Cloud, and Industry Transformation; Jean Philippe Bouchard, Vice President, Data and Analytics.
